Friday, 8 January 2010

TJV: The Forecast or the Art of Taking a Chance

Banque Populaire V. Image copyright B. Stichelbaut/BPCE.

by Virginie Bouchet (in translation)

To leave, or not to leave? This is the question that the Banque Populaire Team has put to itself every morning since November 12 while studying closely and pointedly the window forecast that would allow for them to make a departure for the Trophy Jules Verne. After little more than a month and a half of standby, she is ready and waiting, but the whole cell of analysis forecast set up by Pascal Bidégorry is on the bridge 24H on 24H off to attempt to detect THE window, so awaited, that will allow them to raise this fabulous challenge.

Since the beginning of the year, potential windows have presented themselves. Interesting timelines of premium approach... but when one pushes the analysis further, one notices oneself that they are not the best possibilities. As Pascal Bidégorry explains, "to renounce is, every time, a very painful decision for we all really want to leave. We have in fact had some opportunities since the beginning of January and it is possible that it there will be some others in the days to come. But there is great complexity in the taking of a decision on the basis of forecasts that one studies in great depth. With the few days of reliable visibilities that one has, the remainder is based on analyses of probability. The analysis of the good window forecast is very subtle".

Banque Populaire V crew. Image copyright B. Stichelbaut/BPCE.

A forecast to commence a timed around the world voyage, always depends on the detail, the continuity and must take into account the analysis of the integrity of the boat: "We have seen in recent years that the Trophy Jules Verne is a very difficult challenge and we want to return in the seas of the South with boat in good condition. As I always said, our goal is first to achieve a voyage around the world and next to beat the record", emphasises Pascal.

Vigilance is therefore the master word of the Team Banque Populaire, which observes and analyzes all the different systems and their evolution: "Little by little the phenomena begin returning to wintry systems and we are waiting for this. But there are always too few analyses, the anticyclone of the Azores is too often absent. At last, the conditions in the southern hemisphere begin setting themselves up little by little. Arriving in the south of Brazil, the position could be very complicated and sometimes decisive for the success of the first part of the Trophy Jules Verne. It is necessary to be patient, we have again a little time in front of us to do good work with the necessary degree of requirement to raise such a challenge", concluded Pascal Bidégorry.

Banque Populaire

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